Epstein Secrets

n curve (Jan 21) and we closed Jan 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short term bull flattening in Mexico, and we keep paying ly IBR in Colombia and receive 2y Camara in Chile. We stay neutral on most LatAm FX as valuations are not attractive. We like to short MXN at current levels. Position

e long INR vs USD via options (current 30bps), long TRY vs ZAR and short CLP vs ARS. Otherwise, China data still kicking and we have a long bias In EM Asia Beyond the above risk factors, China data continues to show strength. 2Q GDP numbers surprised to the upside and the overall economic surprises for

n EUR/CLP is an attractive alternative to position for loose monetary policies at the core (current: 618, entry: 616, target: 682, stop: 626). In Colombia, policymakers under-delivered in terms of FX market intervention after signaling that the currency was unacceptably expensive. Nevertheless, some n

upported. More importantly, despite continued US equity market outperformance, international investors have still favoured the Euro-area, Japan and EM Asia over the US in terms of flows. This is unlikely to continue. Chinese reserve accumulation should also slow down, not least because of measures by

2.1 1.8 1.9 Latin America 42 2.9 3.9 2.8 2.4 Argentina 8.9 2.7 3.6 24 -32 &aid 2.7 1.4 4.1 OS IS Chie 6.0 5.4 4.5 5.1 7.1 Colombia 5.9 4.3 4.5 01 6.7 Ecuador 8.0 5.0 4.0 4.2 4.8 Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 41 3.5 Peru 6.9 6.0 7.0 13 60 Uruguay 5.7 3S 4.0 11.8

despite the likely volatility as the fiscal cliff is negotiated. Within equities, we stay underweight the US, and move most of the overweight into EM Asia. We have moved some of our credit overweight from the US to Europe. • Economics — The data flows continue to confirm that June/July was likely the

r recent downgrade of Q1 growth in the Euro area and better activity data in China made us move the lion’s share of the overweight versus the US into EM Asia (see Wednesday’s Global Market Outlook and Strategy). Chinese activity data continue to surprise on the upside. October data for IP, retail sales an

24 -3.2 5.0 10.0 2.0 25 2.0 96 99 10.0 11.0 Brazil 27 14 4 0.5 6 48 46 3.8 40 43 6.7 5.0 55 56 Chile 6.0 54 45 51 71 3.0 40 40 5.0 5.0 40 3.1 25 3.1 Colombia 5.9 43 45 0.9 67 28 3.8 42 53 55 3.9 34 3.1 3.2 Ecuador 8.0 5.0 40 42 48 3.0 55 5.0 3.0 3.0 55 51 54 54 Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 49 30 21+ 3.5 40 3.2 3.3 5