Epstein Secrets

n curve (Jan 21) and we closed Jan 19 receivers. We think there is room for some short term bull flattening in Mexico, and we keep paying ly IBR in Colombia and receive 2y Camara in Chile. We stay neutral on most LatAm FX as valuations are not attractive. We like to short MXN at current levels. Position

ow appreciate freely if Eurozone data keeps improving. BoJ only dovish major central bank The BoJ left its policy unchanged this week and Governor Kuroda justified the current policy framework amid sluggish price developments. With little expected from the BoJ prior to the meeting, it was a non-event

amics remain headwinds for the region as whole. Where export-orientated growth is more elusive, such as in the more closed economies of Brazil and Colombia, domestic demand may not be sufficient to provide attractive rates of return for foreign investment against a backdrop of US rate normalization. A

tly, markets need not fear the absence of further easing by the Bank if, as seems likely, the consumption tax hike in Q2 passed smoothly. Governor Kuroda has also made clear that Japan's massive money expansion will continue until the 2% core CPI target is not only achieved but deemed secure on a su

n EUR/CLP is an attractive alternative to position for loose monetary policies at the core (current: 618, entry: 616, target: 682, stop: 626). In Colombia, policymakers under-delivered in terms of FX market intervention after signaling that the currency was unacceptably expensive. Nevertheless, some n

ding out for the eventual benefits of (Schumpeterian) creative destruction, while Shirakawa was resigned to the structural drag from demographics. Kuroda has taken a leaf out of the Fed's much more activist playbook, raising the stakes (promising almost three times as much QE) and taking a lead in ta

rish (not foolish) For the year ahead, we recommend being bearish 5y US rates, long USDJPY and short a basket of LatAm long bonds (Mexico, Brazil and Colombia). ¢ But in the near term, we urge caution with the reflation trade. Short 10y US real rates offers the best risk-reward after recent moves. US rate

if Draghi succeeds, the Euro could strengthen in the meantime. In contrast, the Bo)’s new framework should address the sustainability challenges that Kuroda faced this year, and allows more fiscal stimulus by keeping the government’s borrowing costs at zero. The ECB cannot do this, in our view. We have be

0yr JGB. However, the Bo) appears to be concerned about the deterioration of financial institution earnings caused by flattening of the yield curve. Kuroda said that even if superlong-term yields rose slightly, he did not believe they would have to be lowered. He went on to say he was also giving conside

d rising growth expectations (chart of right) are ultimately bullish for the currency. Watch next week's BoJ meeting, led by newly appointed Governor Kuroda, for new reflationary measures. • The Euro area economy remains in recession, while policy makers are making little effort to reverse the contraction

l Economic Outlook Summary 2011 Real GDP % over a year ago 2012 2013 2014 3Q12 The Americas United States Canada Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay Venezuela Asia/Pacific Japan Australia New Zealand Asia ex Japan China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippin