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EFTA01464418

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rrency weakness, and more inclined to continue to push through rate cuts, if not regardless of FX, at least as long as FX depreciation is orderly. Hungary's NBH have made it very clear that the focus is on growth, and that inflation is taking the back-seat for now. Consequently, the NBH rate cutting

rt USD/MXN, sell EUR/BRL and EUR/CLP Theme #10: Turning Up the Volume: Buy USD/GBP variance swap and AUD/USD variance swap Research Team London Bilal Hafeez James Malcolm Henrik Gullberg George Saravelos Caio Natividade Siddharth Kapoor Oliver Harvey Nicholas Weng New York Alan Ruskin Daniel Bre

EFTA01464478

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1.22 7.48 7.30 7.20 7.10 - 7.51 7.54 7.61 8.45 8.20 8.10 8.00 - 8.47 8.49 8.54 Source: Datastream, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LP, DB forecasts Hungary Indonesia IDR/USD 9,686 9,950 9,900 9,850 (Fwd. Rates) Malaysia MYR/USD 3.10 3.07 3.05 3.02 (Fwd. Rates) 3.12 3.13 3.16 Philippines PHP/USD 40.

ange Rate Perspectives The Dollar is Back How China Rebalancing, the Great Rotation to the US and Abenomics Will Change the World Research Team Bilal Hafeez Strategist Deutsche Bank AG/London DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012. Foreign Exchange Glob

EFTA01466396_sub_001 - EFTA01466396_100

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19 Greece Health Care Consumer Discretionary Utilities Telco Information Technology Industrial Financials Materials Russia Egypt Energy Hungary Thailand Malaysia South Africa Mexico Taiwan Indonesia Turkey Chile Poland Korea Brazil India Czech Republic China Consumer Staples P

have entered the theoretically closed capital account to play the anticipated appreciation of the Renminbi but DB FX strategists James Malcolm and Bilal Hafeez both reckon that the implicit China carry trade runs to at least the mid to high hundreds of billions of dollars. If they are correct, then China