Epstein Secrets

7 2.70 2.80 2.8 2.8 EEMEA Czech R. Policy 0.05 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 2y 0.74 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.10 1 Oy 1.37 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.70 Hungary Policy 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 2Y 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.70 0.90 1 Oy 2.35 2.20 2.30 2.50 2.80 Israel Policy 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

e long INR vs USD via options (current 30bps), long TRY vs ZAR and short CLP vs ARS. Otherwise, China data still kicking and we have a long bias In EM Asia Beyond the above risk factors, China data continues to show strength. 2Q GDP numbers surprised to the upside and the overall economic surprises for

rrency weakness, and more inclined to continue to push through rate cuts, if not regardless of FX, at least as long as FX depreciation is orderly. Hungary's NBH have made it very clear that the focus is on growth, and that inflation is taking the back-seat for now. Consequently, the NBH rate cutting

upported. More importantly, despite continued US equity market outperformance, international investors have still favoured the Euro-area, Japan and EM Asia over the US in terms of flows. This is unlikely to continue. Chinese reserve accumulation should also slow down, not least because of measures by

United Krgdom 01 00 1.8 -12 -1.5 Emerging Europe 41 2.6 2.61 2,4 1.3 Bulgaria 1.7 1.0 1.5 Czech Republic 1.7 -1.1 0.9 -3.1 -0.8 Hungary 1.6 -12 0.5 -3.5 09 Poland 4.3 2.3 1.81 2.4 11 Romania 2.5 00 0.8 0.5 1$ Russa 4.3 3.6 3.0 3.7 IS Turkey 8.5 2.8 3/ Globa

despite the likely volatility as the fiscal cliff is negotiated. Within equities, we stay underweight the US, and move most of the overweight into EM Asia. We have moved some of our credit overweight from the US to Europe. • Economics — The data flows continue to confirm that June/July was likely the

r recent downgrade of Q1 growth in the Euro area and better activity data in China made us move the lion’s share of the overweight versus the US into EM Asia (see Wednesday’s Global Market Outlook and Strategy). Chinese activity data continue to surprise on the upside. October data for IP, retail sales an

4 13 0.4. 1.8) 27. 24. 3.7 / 64 5.0 60. 63 T Bulgaria wi 0 1.5 a a a we a a a a a a a Czech Republic d -11 0.9 -3.1 -08 -12 -13 21 1.0 43 24 34 29 24 Hungary 6 12 0.5 3.5 -0.9 -1.0 -10 1.0 15 8 44 55 58 47 Poland 43 23 1.61 24 16 0.5 0.5 4 1.34 23. 3.0. 46 40 3.1 25 Romania 25 0.0 0.8 0.5 1.9 -24 12 1.2 -0