Epstein Secrets

7 2.70 2.80 2.8 2.8 EEMEA Czech R. Policy 0.05 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 2y 0.74 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.10 1 Oy 1.37 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.70 Hungary Policy 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 2Y 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.70 0.90 1 Oy 2.35 2.20 2.30 2.50 2.80 Israel Policy 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

ow appreciate freely if Eurozone data keeps improving. BoJ only dovish major central bank The BoJ left its policy unchanged this week and Governor Kuroda justified the current policy framework amid sluggish price developments. With little expected from the BoJ prior to the meeting, it was a non-event

rrency weakness, and more inclined to continue to push through rate cuts, if not regardless of FX, at least as long as FX depreciation is orderly. Hungary's NBH have made it very clear that the focus is on growth, and that inflation is taking the back-seat for now. Consequently, the NBH rate cutting

ding out for the eventual benefits of (Schumpeterian) creative destruction, while Shirakawa was resigned to the structural drag from demographics. Kuroda has taken a leaf out of the Fed's much more activist playbook, raising the stakes (promising almost three times as much QE) and taking a lead in ta

if Draghi succeeds, the Euro could strengthen in the meantime. In contrast, the Bo)’s new framework should address the sustainability challenges that Kuroda faced this year, and allows more fiscal stimulus by keeping the government’s borrowing costs at zero. The ECB cannot do this, in our view. We have be

ad | 16 November 2016 43 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014773 --- PAGE BREAK --- Chart 73: Fundamentals — CEE beats periphery Chart 74: Poland and Hungary wide relative to Chart 75: HUF vol lagging EUR and PLN Italy and Spain 190% 5% 12 140% ©) am "8 @ | 3% 90% ® ay 10 40% 1% -10% 0% 5 Spain France P

0yr JGB. However, the Bo) appears to be concerned about the deterioration of financial institution earnings caused by flattening of the yield curve. Kuroda said that even if superlong-term yields rose slightly, he did not believe they would have to be lowered. He went on to say he was also giving conside

d rising growth expectations (chart of right) are ultimately bullish for the currency. Watch next week's BoJ meeting, led by newly appointed Governor Kuroda, for new reflationary measures. • The Euro area economy remains in recession, while policy makers are making little effort to reverse the contraction

an Thailand Africa/Middle East Israel South Africa Europe Euro area Germany France Italy Spain United Kingdom Emerging Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Russia Turkey Global Developed markets Emerging markets Source: J.P. Morgan 6 1.8 2.6 8.9 2.7 5.9 6.6 8.0 3.9 6.9 5.7 4.2 4.7 -0.5 2.4