Epstein Secrets

nk of three reasons to go short CHF/NOK. 1. The relative cycle is supportive of rate differentials. Inflation is at a much higher starting point in Norway than in Switzerland, leaving the Norges Bank much less room to manoeuvre than the SNB in the event of upside surprises to import prices or stronge

n Norway has evolved rapidly from three months ago, with the first hike now expected in Q3 2015 rather than Q1 2014, more or less in line with the Norges' own projections. NOK is also much better placed to benefit from a stronger US cycle with one of the strongest correlations to US growth, and CHF

together, the dilemma of balancing the risk of domestic overheating versus excessive currency appreciation and subdued spot inflation is something Norway shares with a number of EM economies and also to a lesser extent with neighboring Sweden. However, Norway's dilemma is further reinforced by the l

use prices now have the upper hand again, although with the caveat this could change if the krone appreciates significantly. However, to be fair to Norges it is a nigh impossible job for any inflation targeting central bank to balance the dilemma of pockets of domestic overheating with external defla

prices vs. sticky CPI. • NOK cheap, but investors wary of jumping back in unless/until Norges Bank and/or crude provide support supportive. In Norway, the mainland economy has been growing around 2.0-2.5% YoY for most of the last couple of years, with the recent PMI and manufacturing output sugg

st is a scenario in which past and current FX weakness feeds through to imported inflation, thus preventing core from moderating in line with Norges forecasts. If the Bank then feels compelled to hike rates at a time when house prices already are declining, that would exacerbate the decline and