Epstein Secrets

e of the US onshore) concentrated in exploration budgets and deferrals of major project spend, with limited impact on near-term production levels. Norway: Exhibit A In some ways, Norway is a microcosm of the larger global picture. Largely synonymous with mature declining assets, averaging 6% YoY decl

f the larger global picture. Largely synonymous with mature declining assets, averaging 6% YoY decline since 2002 (vs 9% for the UK), the Norwegian North Sea will actually see production flat to slightly increasing through 2017. Driving this is a significant increase in major project growth barrels, with

few meaningful differences: 1) fiscal policy (including the most recent tax change) has done little to encourage exploration in the region (unlike Norway), resulting in far fewer meaningful growth projects in the development queue (check the data on this), 2) aging infrastructure has become increasin

ils Why the UK 7:3). 7 a good prow for Norwegian for global Non-OPEC) production While some have looked at the UK as a cautionary tale for both the North Sea and as an example for global Non-OPEC production, we see limited read through. Like its neighbor, the UK has seen steadily declining production de

urrent production. We see this risk as slightly less acute than some basins heavily dependent on maintenancefunfill capital spend (ie. UK North Sea/Norway). however every 1% increase in underlying decline above our 8%/yr base case would reduce 2017 production by 40 Mb/d. 2. Delays to FPSO start-ups.

MMb/d of current production. We see this risk as slightly less acute than some basins heavily dependent on maintenancefunfill capital spend (ie. UK North Sea/Norway). however every 1% increase in underlying decline above our 8%/yr base case would reduce 2017 production by 40 Mb/d. 2. Delays to FPSO star

61) (1,359) (592) (50) 574 company with 1.0bn boe of proved reserves at the end of 2015. E&P operations are focused in the US onshore, deepwater GOM, North Sea, West Africa #@method™—QualityofEarningss oil, and Asian natural gas. (US$ Millions) 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Cash Realization Ratio NM NM NM

uction in 2Q17 we suggest Hess has both — short cycle, comprising not only the Bakken but tie back opportunities across established infrastructure in Norway and the US GoM — and long cycle in the shape of a transformational opportunity in Guyana, that becomes tangible with a likely FID in 2Q17. Impact on

lance of Payments (BoP) framework as they could lead to drains on SAMA reserves in the near term. Over time, Saudi Arabia could decide to emulate the Norway model, which would entail a more prudent use and conduct of fiscal policy, in our view. Chart 1: PIF budget contributions small versus GCC SWF contr

rice assumptions 3.0 2.5 2.0 mn b/d, YoY BofAML f'cast 15 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 2010 2012 2014 2016F 2018F 2020F mu US meme Canada mam Mexico mmm North Sea mmm Russia Kazakhstan . . 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 mum Asia Brazil mmm Sudan/So. Sudan other —+— total non-OPEC base =2016@$45/bbl m20