Epstein Secrets

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perspective and then owning outright thereafter. And =iven how you and Jeffrey have more flexibility (you don't answer to =utside investors), since Le Pen seems a low risk, you might be willing =o be more aggressive. Investors are underweight Europe overall and =ithin Europe, underweight European bank

urope, especially France and Germany. Because of the winner takes all system in France we find investors are more concerned with the situation there. Marine Le Pen and the Front National look likely to make it to the second round of voting (again according to polls) and until the vote comes in we suspect investo

to the second round of voting (again according to polls) and until the vote comes in we suspect investors will be cautious about European markets. A Le Pen victory could likely bring the future of the EU and the Euro into question as she has talked about France withdrawing from both. That in turn has arg

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crucial French elections. A Bankof America Merrill Lynch European Equity Strategy | 01 December 2016 5 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014464 --- PAGE BREAK --- Marine Le Pen victory could bring into question both the future of the EU and also the euro, should the polls be close it could make the uncertainty and market mov

erica 16 European Equity Strategy | 01 December 2016 Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014475 --- PAGE BREAK --- Barty argued in The Trump Inflection, Le Pen’s victory has the potential to be even more of an earthquake for the world’s financial markets. Indeed, we have already seen a 1vol move in April 2017

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rate cut. The risk to this view is if tail risk scenarios unfold in European politics, such as an early election in Italy with Five Star winning, or Le Pen wining the second round in the French elections. Although we expect markets to be more concerned about European politics following the US elections,

ut it earlier if Renzi loses the referendum. The 2017 French election is another concern. President of the far-right party and presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is ahead in the polls to win the first round. Winning the second round is much more difficult, as she will need more than 50% of the votes, but inves

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e risk of a Fed hike in March and better-than- expected results by the Freedom Party in the Dutch election could intensify concerns of a second-round Le Pen win in May. The latter suggests that over the next 2-3 months it may be easier to buy the USD than to pay US rates and easier to sell EUR/USD than to

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