Epstein Secrets

=== 6m change in 30y real rates (RHS, inverted == USGGT10Y Index (R1) 5y5 | rates scale, %4) yoy real ra Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, US Treasury The BAML multi asset strategy index is not representative of all isk-parity funds. Si : BofA Merrill Lynch Global R h Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Glo

19). First, given USD/JPY’s significant correlation with 10Y yield differentials (>60%}, the anchoring of 10Y yields will further weigh on the Yen as US Treasury yields rise. Second, further Japanese fiscal stimulus will successfully lower real yields through higher breakeven rates of inflation while nominal y

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rom a low-yield environment (REITs) outperformed the converse (banks, insurance; Chart 3). However, we expect conditions to reverse into 2017. We see US Treasury yields rising and Japanese core CPI inflation recovering to +1.4% yoy by 2018 and core- core to +1.1% yoy. Stronger inflation and higher foreign yiel

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rom a low-yield environment (REITs) outperformed the converse (banks, insurance; Chart 3). However, we expect conditions to reverse into 2017. We see US Treasury yields rising and Japanese core CPI inflation recovering to +1.4% yoy by 2018 and core-core to +1.1% yoy. Stronger inflation and higher foreign yield

naged to last just for one day after the US election. The insurance sector has been the best performer since the US election on the back of a steeper US Treasury curve and higher rates. Michael Hartnett observes “violent rotation out of deflation to inflation plays”, including a move from REITs to US banks. Th

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5-25 -23~—s -20 -19 25-26 Other assets -4 “1-11-10 11-1 -11 -11— 11 memo: Identified Saudi Arabian and Middle Eastern holdings in the US Saudi Arabia US Treasury (UST) holdings 51 46 8 69 68 £76 80 91 109 Long-term securities 50 45 82 68 67 74 78 88 107 Short-term securities 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 Saudi Arabia hold

nonprofit educational facilities Education 660 Special Blue Cross/Blue Shield tax benefits Health 630 Source: BofAML US Equity & Quant Strategy, US Department of Treasury Immediate capex expensing should provide some initial cash tax benefits The shift to the immediate expensing of capital expenditures should provide

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83 --- PAGE BREAK --- Rates vol is near all-time lows and is favorable for positioning for a break-out Since the US Election last November, the 10y US Treasury rate has fluctuated between 2.17% and 2.63%, constantly being jostled up or down by various economic forces. It is currently trading towards the bott

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s within the hypothetical risk parity Dec-12 through 27-Jun-16. Equity, fixed income, and commodity investment are represented by the S&P500, 10-Year US Treasury components within the hypothetical risk parity investment are Bonds, and the S&P GSCI Index respectively. Risk parity represented by the S&P500, 10-Y

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