Epstein Secrets

e trends, starts others In the three weeks since Donald Trump’s election victory global markets have seen some dr

Global Cross Asset Strategy —- Year Ahead Bankof America The Trump inflection ape ce Investment Strategy 30 November 2016 Corrected Key takeaways ee « Market response to Trump is logical but moves have been frontlo

am Page for Full List of Contributors 10Y real rates. CNH a hedge vs trade risk. Trump extends some trends, starts others In the three weeks since Donald Trump’s election victory global markets have seen some dramatic moves. Som1e of those moves are extending trends that had already started — higher yields, hi

e. That is particularly the case if the Fed under President Trump is made more hawkish as our economists think it p

LPF&S [email protected] First came Brexit, then Donald Trump’s election as the president of the most powerful co

17 Short US Sy rates — Two and a half Fed hikes priced by the rates market for 2017- 18 are not consistent with aggressive fiscal easing promised by Trump. Bankof America Merrill Lynch 16 November 2016 Corrected FX and Rates Global 2. Short US 10y real rates — After the violent repricing of inflatio

d’s tightening cycles. 6. Buy USD call/CNH put — President Trump will need a weak USD, but President Xi needs a we

16 November 2016 05:30AM EST HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014731 --- PAGE BREAK --- Introduction David Woo MLPF&S [email protected] First came Brexit, then Donald Trump’s election as the president of the most powerful country in the world. The world has changed. Possibly irrevocably so. These ground shifts have been b

ffect on MXN We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump’s effects on the Mexican peso. Our analysis suggest

Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Liquid Insight Trump’s effect on MXN Key takeaways ¢ We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump's potential effects on the Mexican peso ¢ Our analysis suggests t

ohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Liquid Insight Trump’s effect on MXN Key takeaways ¢ We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump's potential effects on the Mexican peso ¢ Our analysis suggests the exchange rate is perhaps as much as 15% undervalued « We remain neutral for now g

d not futures contracts). Singapore recipients of this research report should contact Merrill Lynch International Bank Limited (Merchant Bank) and/or Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this research report. General Investment Related Disclosures: Taiwan Readers: Neither

ics, diplomacy and US economic cycle The biggest risk to our scenario is the implications for Japan’s diplomatic and geopolitical environment of the Donald Trump presidency in the US. The likelihood of agreement on the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) has already declined and been priced into the market, but an

ser to Europe under such a scenario, raising the incentive to sign the Japan-EU EPA (Economic Partner Agreement), positive for related stocks. If the Trump presidency tips the US towards isolationism, we expect Japan’s spending on defense to increase. If this results in higher spending on Japan’s Self De

h (Hong Kong): Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited, regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFC); Merrill Lynch (Singapore): Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS); Merrill Lynch (Canada): Merrill Lynch Canada Inc, regulated by the Investment Industry Regul

r Cross Asset year ahead you needed not so much a crystal ball as a time machine to have got things completely right this year. Aside from Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US election it is easy to forget that in February we were worrying about a US recession and deflation. US 5Y5Y forward breakeven inflatio

ed at 1.8% at that point. Four months later we were worrying about the deflationary impact of Brexit. Now we are thinking about the reflation under a Trump Presidency. Chart 9: US 5Y5Y forward inflation troughed in February Chart 10: At the same time as Basic Resources 3.3 17 34 45 —— Stoxx Basic Resour

h (Hong Kong): Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited, regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFC); Merrill Lynch (Singapore): Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS); Merrill Lynch (Canada): Merrill Lynch Canada Inc, regulated by the Investment Industry Regul

reform OK, maybe it’s not as inevitable as death and taxes, but some form of corporate tax reform seems likely. It is a stated priority of President Trump and has widespread Congressional support. We here focus on four components that could have big equity implications. We assess the impacts at a market

x reform seems likely. It is a stated priority of President Trump and has widespread Congressional support. We here

d not futures contracts). Singapore recipients of this research report should contact Merrill Lynch International Bank Limited (Merchant Bank) and/or Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this research report. General Investment Related Disclosures: Taiwan Readers: Neither

s Japanese real interest rates can actually fall. Watch Abe-Trump meeting - coordination or conflict? Given the high uncertainty, clarifications on Trump’s policies on trade and currency will be important for the Japanese market going forward. A potential Abe-Trump meeting in New York this Thursday (17

h (Hong Kong): Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited, regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFC); Merrill Lynch (Singapore): Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS); Merrill Lynch (Canada): Merrill Lynch Canada Inc, regulated by the Investment Industry Regul

ital allocation update, tax reform, rising interest rates. Latest report: MCO rally has just begun; beneficiaries of the non-Health Care upside from Trump 1Q risks: Risks to the downside are courts not approving the HUM acquisition, lower- than-expected membership growth and higher than expected cost t

h (Hong Kong): Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited, regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFC); Merrill Lynch (Singapore): Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS); Merrill Lynch (Canada): Merrill Lynch Canada Inc, regulated by the Investment Industry Regul

long term. Since the presidential election, the ’trump tax rally’ that has arguably lifted the broader S

; Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong): Merri Pacific) Limited, regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFQ); Merrill Lynch (Singapore): Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd, regulated by the Monetary Au Singapore (MAS); Merrill Lynch (Canada): Merrill Lynch Canada Inc, regulated by the Investment Industry Regulatory Orga

a recent interview with the Financial Times that international tourism to the US (Expedia’s key market) has decelerated following the introduction of Trump’s travel bans, which may be a downside risk to 1Q bookings and revenues. This mirrors ForwardKeys data from early March that after Trump’s executive

h (Hong Kong): Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited, regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFC); Merrill Lynch (Singapore): Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS); Merrill Lynch (Canada): Merrill Lynch Canada Inc, regulated by the Investment Industry Regul