Epstein Secrets

ffect on MXN We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump’s effects on the Mexican peso. Our analysis suggest

Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Liquid Insight Trump’s effect on MXN Key takeaways ¢ We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump's potential effects on the Mexican peso ¢ Our analysis suggests t

ohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Liquid Insight Trump’s effect on MXN Key takeaways ¢ We provide an empirical analysis of Donald Trump's potential effects on the Mexican peso ¢ Our analysis suggests the exchange rate is perhaps as much as 15% undervalued « We remain neutral for now g

AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated by Comissdo de Valores Mobiliarios; Merrill Lynch KSA Company, errill Lynch Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Company, regulated by the Capital Market Authority. This research report: has been a

west footprint with its low unemployment and a strong manufacturing base. While commenting on the potential for relief coming out of DC under the new Trump administration, management noted that shortage of skilled workers was probably the biggest issue impeding businesses in its footprint versus higher t

_OVERSIGHT_014364 --- PAGE BREAK --- proposals. Mr. Trump and congress could also ultimately defer to the S

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ics, diplomacy and US economic cycle The biggest risk to our scenario is the implications for Japan’s diplomatic and geopolitical environment of the Donald Trump presidency in the US. The likelihood of agreement on the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) has already declined and been priced into the market, but an

ser to Europe under such a scenario, raising the incentive to sign the Japan-EU EPA (Economic Partner Agreement), positive for related stocks. If the Trump presidency tips the US towards isolationism, we expect Japan’s spending on defense to increase. If this results in higher spending on Japan’s Self De

AS.V., regulated by Comisi6n Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated by Comissdo de Valores Mobiliarios; Merrill Lynch KSA Company, errill Lynch Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Company, regulated by the Capital Market Authority. This research report: has been a

r Cross Asset year ahead you needed not so much a crystal ball as a time machine to have got things completely right this year. Aside from Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US election it is easy to forget that in February we were worrying about a US recession and deflation. US 5Y5Y forward breakeven inflatio

ed at 1.8% at that point. Four months later we were worrying about the deflationary impact of Brexit. Now we are thinking about the reflation under a Trump Presidency. Chart 9: US 5Y5Y forward inflation troughed in February Chart 10: At the same time as Basic Resources 3.3 17 34 45 —— Stoxx Basic Resour

AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil}: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated by Comissdo de Valores Mobiliarios; Merrill Lynch KSA Company, errill Lynch Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Company, regulated by the Capital Market Authority. This research report: has been a

Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Cause and Effect Fade the Trump risk premium — buy USD Concerns over stagflation return In our view, the most interesting and important development in the global financial market

fact that the only item in his 100 day plan that President Trump has reneged on is his promise to label China as a

Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch FSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by ultiplo S.A, regulated by Comissdo de Valores Mobiliarios; Merrill Lynch KSA Company, h (Singapore): Merril erril y the Securities and y. ) ingdom (UK ional Limited, which are authorized the PRA) by Mer

long term. Since the presidential election, the ’trump tax rally’ that has arguably lifted the broader S

pana, S.AS.V., regu Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated by Comissdo de Valores Mobiliarios; Merrill Lynch KSA Company, Merrill Lynch In Bank Limited (Merchant Bank} (MLIBLMB) and Merrill Lynch (Singapore) (Company Registration Nos F 06872

r- end target of 2.85% for the 10y rate (just above the median forecast). Long-term rates have remained low due to uncertainty around Fiscal policy (Trump’s plans on infrastructure spending), subdued inflation expectations and a slower than expected Fed hiking cycle. On the other hand, a near full-emplo

Bank of the Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch errill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.A.S.V., regulated by jo SA, regulated by Comissdo de Valores Mobiliarios; Merrill Lynch KSA Company, regulate by the S DFSA): } to professional clients and eligible counterparties (as each is defined in the rules of th