Epstein Secrets

long term. Since the presidential election, the ’trump tax rally’ that has arguably lifted the broader S

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ined under the Financial Advisers Regulations) by Merrill Lynch Interna Bank Limited (Merchant Bank} (MLIBLMB} and Merrill

ics, diplomacy and US economic cycle The biggest risk to our scenario is the implications for Japan’s diplomatic and geopolitical environment of the Donald Trump presidency in the US. The likelihood of agreement on the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) has already declined and been priced into the market, but an

ser to Europe under such a scenario, raising the incentive to sign the Japan-EU EPA (Economic Partner Agreement), positive for related stocks. If the Trump presidency tips the US towards isolationism, we expect Japan’s spending on defense to increase. If this results in higher spending on Japan’s Self De

Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Cause and Effect Fade the Trump risk premium — buy USD Concerns over stagflation return In our view, the most interesting and important development in the global financial market

fact that the only item in his 100 day plan that President Trump has reneged on is his promise to label China as a

which is regu jon in Hong Kong and are not directed to, or Lynch (Taiwan); is issued and distributed in India by DSP Merrill Advisers Regulations) by Merrill Lynch Interna dd 198602883D respectively). MLIBLMB and Merrill Lynch (Singapore) are ralia) and Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited (ABN 65 006 276 795), AF

uted in the Uni errill Lynch Interna the PRA) by Merrill Lynch Interna ut the extent of our regulation by jon in relati

scenario for Japan is a combination of rising US protectionism, sliding global trade, and a stronger yen, which could reduce 2017 growth to zero. The Trump presidency may increase pressure on Japan to achieve greater military self-reliance, boosting defense spending. There will also be greater incentives

o F&S and not such ributed in the Uni ntern K): Merrill Lynch In d, regulated by the A mmission (HKSFC); ated by t

upside on structurally challenged European banks & relatively more bearish outlook for US rates vs EU USDJPY and NKY the biggest beneficiaries of a Trump win Banks and Insurance are the most leveraged sector Banks and Insurance are the most leveraged sector China risk premium rising but A-shares vol

one or more o istributed to F&S and not such K): Merrill Lynch In d, regulated by the A mmission (HKSFC); ated by t

r- end target of 2.85% for the 10y rate (just above the median forecast). Long-term rates have remained low due to uncertainty around Fiscal policy (Trump’s plans on infrastructure spending), subdued inflation expectations and a slower than expected Fed hiking cycle. On the other hand, a near full-emplo