Epstein Secrets

r Cross Asset year ahead you needed not so much a crystal ball as a time machine to have got things completely right this year. Aside from Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US election it is easy to forget that in February we were worrying about a US recession and deflation. US 5Y5Y forward breakeven inflatio

ed at 1.8% at that point. Four months later we were worrying about the deflationary impact of Brexit. Now we are thinking about the reflation under a Trump Presidency. Chart 9: US 5Y5Y forward inflation troughed in February Chart 10: At the same time as Basic Resources 3.3 17 34 45 —— Stoxx Basic Resour

ia): OOO Merrill Lynch Securities, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comi

Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Cause and Effect Fade the Trump risk premium — buy USD Concerns over stagflation return In our view, the most interesting and important development in the global financial market

fact that the only item in his 100 day plan that President Trump has reneged on is his promise to label China as a

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would be interested and able to do work on them if they were to con- vert to C-corps. We had conversations around conversion a year ago as President Trump took office amid promises of tax reform, and the subject came up on nearly every 4Q16 earnings call. Management teams seemed to table the idea becaus

had conversations around conversion a year ago as President Trump took office amid promises of tax reform, and the

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scenario for Japan is a combination of rising US protectionism, sliding global trade, and a stronger yen, which could reduce 2017 growth to zero. The Trump presidency may increase pressure on Japan to achieve greater military self-reliance, boosting defense spending. There will also be greater incentives

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ital allocation update, tax reform, rising interest rates. Latest report: MCO rally has just begun; beneficiaries of the non-Health Care upside from Trump 1Q risks: Risks to the downside are courts not approving the HUM acquisition, lower- than-expected membership growth and higher than expected cost t

ia): OOO Merrill Lynch Securities, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.A.S.V., regulated by Com

r- end target of 2.85% for the 10y rate (just above the median forecast). Long-term rates have remained low due to uncertainty around Fiscal policy (Trump’s plans on infrastructure spending), subdued inflation expectations and a slower than expected Fed hiking cycle. On the other hand, a near full-emplo

ited investors Company hee er under the wan by Merri ch as defi A Australia) and poration ILynch by MLP iliates d hority; Lynch International (DIFC Branch), regulated by t ores; Merrill Lynch (Brazi bia Company, regu n and is d PRA) by MLI (UK) and Bank of America Merrill Lynch Intern (as defined in the