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ics, diplomacy and US economic cycle The biggest risk to our scenario is the implications for Japan’s diplomatic and geopolitical environment of the Donald Trump presidency in the US. The likelihood of agreement on the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) has already declined and been priced into the market, but an

ser to Europe under such a scenario, raising the incentive to sign the Japan-EU EPA (Economic Partner Agreement), positive for related stocks. If the Trump presidency tips the US towards isolationism, we expect Japan’s spending on defense to increase. If this results in higher spending on Japan’s Self De

public information. Facts and views presented in this material that rela professionals in other busi This re securities. None of MLPF&S, any of i Global Research policy prohibits rese report containing such rating, recommendation or investment thesis. Any in seek tax advice based on tl The information herein

r Cross Asset year ahead you needed not so much a crystal ball as a time machine to have got things completely right this year. Aside from Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US election it is easy to forget that in February we were worrying about a US recession and deflation. US 5Y5Y forward breakeven inflatio

ed at 1.8% at that point. Four months later we were worrying about the deflationary impact of Brexit. Now we are thinking about the reflation under a Trump Presidency. Chart 9: US 5Y5Y forward inflation troughed in February Chart 10: At the same time as Basic Resources 3.3 17 34 45 —— Stoxx Basic Resour

eekly earnings minus CPI inflationSource: BofA Merrill Lynch REC placements is an average of permanent and temporary placements. REC and PMI shown as Global Research, ONS. standard deviations from average. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Markit Given all of the above, we reiterate our preference for av

long term. Since the presidential election, the ’trump tax rally’ that has arguably lifted the broader S

, any of its affiliates or their research analysts has any authority whatsoever to make any representation or warranty on behalf of the issuer(s). Bo Global Research policy prohibits research personnel from disclosing a recommendation, investment rating, or investment thesis for review by an issuer prior to the v

a recent interview with the Financial Times that international tourism to the US (Expedia’s key market) has decelerated following the introduction of Trump’s travel bans, which may be a downside risk to 1Q bookings and revenues. This mirrors ForwardKeys data from early March that after Trump’s executive

= -1.2% = 5.0% = -3.1% ~=— 6.0% ~=—-0.9% 8.9% -14% 29% 4.2% 3.0% 0.4% —-1.0% 3.3% -2.4% 3.6% Source: Smith Travel Research (STR), BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates; Note: **March data is month to date Estimates vs. Consensus: In-line 1Q revenue and EPS We expect 1Q revenue/EPS of $2.13bn/S0.07 vs. the

outside of the United Kingdom. BofA errill Lyne h Global Researc| MLPF&S or one of its affiliates is a regular iss

upside on structurally challenged European banks & relatively more bearish outlook for US rates vs EU USDJPY and NKY the biggest beneficiaries of a Trump win Banks and Insurance are the most leveraged sector Banks and Insurance are the most leveraged sector China risk premium rising but A-shares vol