Epstein Secrets

e trends, starts others In the three weeks since Donald Trump’s election victory global markets have seen some dr

Global Cross Asset Strategy —- Year Ahead Bankof America The Trump inflection ape ce Investment Strategy 30 November 2016 Corrected Key takeaways ee « Market response to Trump is logical but moves have been frontlo

am Page for Full List of Contributors 10Y real rates. CNH a hedge vs trade risk. Trump extends some trends, starts others In the three weeks since Donald Trump’s election victory global markets have seen some dramatic moves. Som1e of those moves are extending trends that had already started — higher yields, hi

e. That is particularly the case if the Fed under President Trump is made more hawkish as our economists think it p

ics, diplomacy and US economic cycle The biggest risk to our scenario is the implications for Japan’s diplomatic and geopolitical environment of the Donald Trump presidency in the US. The likelihood of agreement on the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) has already declined and been priced into the market, but an

ser to Europe under such a scenario, raising the incentive to sign the Japan-EU EPA (Economic Partner Agreement), positive for related stocks. If the Trump presidency tips the US towards isolationism, we expect Japan’s spending on defense to increase. If this results in higher spending on Japan’s Self De

n; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisi6n Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated

Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Cause and Effect Fade the Trump risk premium — buy USD Concerns over stagflation return In our view, the most interesting and important development in the global financial market

fact that the only item in his 100 day plan that President Trump has reneged on is his promise to label China as a

errill Lynch (Israel): Merrill Lynch ies, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch FSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by ultiplo S.A, regulated by Comissdo de Valores Mobiliarios; Merrill Lynch KSA Company, h (Singapore): Merril erril y the Secu

reform OK, maybe it’s not as inevitable as death and taxes, but some form of corporate tax reform seems likely. It is a stated priority of President Trump and has widespread Congressional support. We here focus on four components that could have big equity implications. We assess the impacts at a market

x reform seems likely. It is a stated priority of President Trump and has widespread Congressional support. We here

n; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated

s Japanese real interest rates can actually fall. Watch Abe-Trump meeting - coordination or conflict? Given the high uncertainty, clarifications on Trump’s policies on trade and currency will be important for the Japanese market going forward. A potential Abe-Trump meeting in New York this Thursday (17

n; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch}, regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.AS.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulated

ital allocation update, tax reform, rising interest rates. Latest report: MCO rally has just begun; beneficiaries of the non-Health Care upside from Trump 1Q risks: Risks to the downside are courts not approving the HUM acquisition, lower- than-expected membership growth and higher than expected cost t

n; Merrill Lynch DIFC}: Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.A.S.V., regulated by Comisién Nacional del Mercado De Valores; Merrill Lynch (Brazil}: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banco Multiplo S.A., regulate

r- end target of 2.85% for the 10y rate (just above the median forecast). Long-term rates have remained low due to uncertainty around Fiscal policy (Trump’s plans on infrastructure spending), subdued inflation expectations and a slower than expected Fed hiking cycle. On the other hand, a near full-emplo

angan (OJK); Merrill Lynch (Israel): Merrill es, Moscow, regulated by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Merrill Lynch errill Lynch (Spain): Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana, S.A.S.V., regulated by jo SA, regulated by Comissdo de Valores Mobiliarios; Merrill Lynch KSA Company, regulate by the S DFSA): } to profession