Epstein Secrets

LPF&S [email protected] First came Brexit, then Donald Trump’s election as the president of the most powerful co

17 Short US Sy rates — Two and a half Fed hikes priced by the rates market for 2017- 18 are not consistent with aggressive fiscal easing promised by Trump. Bankof America Merrill Lynch 16 November 2016 Corrected FX and Rates Global 2. Short US 10y real rates — After the violent repricing of inflatio

d’s tightening cycles. 6. Buy USD call/CNH put — President Trump will need a weak USD, but President Xi needs a we

16 November 2016 05:30AM EST HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014731 --- PAGE BREAK --- Introduction David Woo MLPF&S [email protected] First came Brexit, then Donald Trump’s election as the president of the most powerful country in the world. The world has changed. Possibly irrevocably so. These ground shifts have been b

west footprint with its low unemployment and a strong manufacturing base. While commenting on the potential for relief coming out of DC under the new Trump administration, management noted that shortage of skilled workers was probably the biggest issue impeding businesses in its footprint versus higher t

_OVERSIGHT_014364 --- PAGE BREAK --- proposals. Mr. Trump and congress could also ultimately defer to the S

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ics, diplomacy and US economic cycle The biggest risk to our scenario is the implications for Japan’s diplomatic and geopolitical environment of the Donald Trump presidency in the US. The likelihood of agreement on the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) has already declined and been priced into the market, but an

ser to Europe under such a scenario, raising the incentive to sign the Japan-EU EPA (Economic Partner Agreement), positive for related stocks. If the Trump presidency tips the US towards isolationism, we expect Japan’s spending on defense to increase. If this results in higher spending on Japan’s Self De

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r Cross Asset year ahead you needed not so much a crystal ball as a time machine to have got things completely right this year. Aside from Brexit and Donald Trump winning the US election it is easy to forget that in February we were worrying about a US recession and deflation. US 5Y5Y forward breakeven inflatio

ed at 1.8% at that point. Four months later we were worrying about the deflationary impact of Brexit. Now we are thinking about the reflation under a Trump Presidency. Chart 9: US 5Y5Y forward inflation troughed in February Chart 10: At the same time as Basic Resources 3.3 17 34 45 —— Stoxx Basic Resour

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reform OK, maybe it’s not as inevitable as death and taxes, but some form of corporate tax reform seems likely. It is a stated priority of President Trump and has widespread Congressional support. We here focus on four components that could have big equity implications. We assess the impacts at a market

x reform seems likely. It is a stated priority of President Trump and has widespread Congressional support. We here

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s Japanese real interest rates can actually fall. Watch Abe-Trump meeting - coordination or conflict? Given the high uncertainty, clarifications on Trump’s policies on trade and currency will be important for the Japanese market going forward. A potential Abe-Trump meeting in New York this Thursday (17

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ital allocation update, tax reform, rising interest rates. Latest report: MCO rally has just begun; beneficiaries of the non-Health Care upside from Trump 1Q risks: Risks to the downside are courts not approving the HUM acquisition, lower- than-expected membership growth and higher than expected cost t

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long term. Since the presidential election, the ’trump tax rally’ that has arguably lifted the broader S

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a recent interview with the Financial Times that international tourism to the US (Expedia’s key market) has decelerated following the introduction of Trump’s travel bans, which may be a downside risk to 1Q bookings and revenues. This mirrors ForwardKeys data from early March that after Trump’s executive

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ntion) may still find that option markets are currently pricing too little of a move. However, as we have recently argued the debate about whether a Trump win would be good or bad for markets coupled with the inability to exactly pinpoint real risks are likely headwinds to a sizeable market shock. 8 Gl

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