Epstein Secrets

ove-discussed variables are able to explain a fair amount of the variation in wage acceleration: the R- squared of the regression is 33°k. Page 10 Deutsche Sank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0116614 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00262798 EFTA01457188

1, 1§) 1? Seran• aff, 813Crntrerg leave (Pro , Gnu,* arst In terms of wage inflation below we update our wage model to incorporate the Fed's new NAIRU estimates. If unemployment does not continue to fall, there is still no wage acceleration. If it does then with the lower NAIRU estimates wage acce

ove-discussed variables are able to explain a fair amount of the variation in wage acceleration: the R- squared of the regression is 33°k. Page 10 Deutsche Sank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0087391 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00233575 EFTA01385923

1, 1§) 1? Seran• aff, 813Crntrerg leave (Pro , Gnu,* arst In terms of wage inflation below we update our wage model to incorporate the Fed's new NAIRU estimates. If unemployment does not continue to fall, there is still no wage acceleration. If it does then with the lower NAIRU estimates wage acce

ned, there is consensus that there should be two hikes by the end of the year (and four more in 2016). Alirtals-4nr Research Analyst I+ Page 22 Deutsche Sank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0087403 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00233587 EFTA01385935

divided subject of the future economic path and sets the terrain for a period of elevated volatility across various market sectors. Lowering of the NAIRU, the dovish side, means either we do not have the right model or, if we do, then we do not know how to calibrate it. It is not even clear that the