Epstein Secrets

250bn u/weight 02 05 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP 08 11 Swiss Franc Is Last "Safe Hav

rt USD/MXN, sell EUR/BRL and EUR/CLP Theme #10: Turning Up the Volume: Buy USD/GBP variance swap and AUD/USD variance swap Research Team London Bilal Hafeez James Malcolm Henrik Gullberg George Saravelos Caio Natividade Siddharth Kapoor Oliver Harvey Nicholas Weng New York Alan Ruskin Daniel Bre

s) 200 100% 150 100 50 0 20% 40% 60% 80% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg The significance of the USD/JPY turn higher should not be understated. It is perhaps the only currency pair that has captured all the major macro

ange Rate Perspectives The Dollar is Back How China Rebalancing, the Great Rotation to the US and Abenomics Will Change the World Research Team Bilal Hafeez Strategist Deutsche Bank AG/London DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012. Foreign Exchange Glob

0 1 yr 3 year 5 year Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg LP EM relative valuations are not as cheap as th

have entered the theoretically closed capital account to play the anticipated appreciation of the Renminbi but DB FX strategists James Malcolm and Bilal Hafeez both reckon that the implicit China carry trade runs to at least the mid to high hundreds of billions of dollars. If they are correct, then China

.0 130.0 140.0 80.0 90.0 1.0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: DB FX Research Source: DB FX Research *Sources: BIS, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank. Notes: For details on model, see Exchange Rate Perspectives, Jan-13. BEER model is relative PPP adjusted for terms-of-trade and pro

ers as to the potential impact of any regulatory provisions noted in this article upon their respective businesses. The author would like to thank Bilal Hafeez and Matt Holmes for their help in writing this report. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 17 EFTA01464337 30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspecti