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This has been offset by strong output from remaining OPEC countries, including Libya, which has almost returned to pre- crisis levels. However, the Brent futures curve remains backwardated (spot above forwards), which shows the oil market remains tight. We believe this reflects stronger demand, likely

We thus expect base metals and other industrial commodities to pick-up sharply as we head into the summer and through the second half of the year. Jan Loeys (AC) EFTA00630376 JPMorgan Chase Bank NA John Normand J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. Nikolaos Pani irtzoglou J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. Seamus

ll as weaker supply growth, largely in Iraq and Libya. • Recent reports of a peace agreement in Libya between the rebels and the government caused Brent to fall by around 5%. We think a quick and full recovery in production is unlikely and we also think overall production capacity is now lower due t

NGN vs. ua FX Cornell Small OW Energy on carry: Copper on better demand from China. Sauce'. J P. Morgan 5 EFTA_R1_00470164 EFTA01981562 Jan Loeys Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 11 My 2014 Global Economic Outlook Summary Real GDP %owxayear ago Real GDP %aerawfous peed. isar

rporates (CEMBI) 10.1% 9.5% 13.1% 21.0% 16.4% 15.4% Quarterly Averages Commodities Current 1204 1301 1302 1303 GSCI Index YID Return' Brent (Sibbl) 110 105 112 105 120 Energy -3.7% Gold (Stoz) 1733 1725 1750 1775 Precious Metals 8.7% Copper IS/metric ton) 7629 8300 8500

4 0 5 ICI 15 20 Sane J P. Morgan. Bbornberg See blue box m page 2 Sol °escapee() www.morga n m a rkets.com EFTA_R 1_020751 13 EFTA02702625 Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 jan.loeystaprnorgan.com Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan 'flew 09 November 2012 • As a result, we stay underweight US

make the largest gain with close to 14%, closely followed by base metals and precious metals with 12% and 9% respectively. Our oil strategists see Brent at $120/bbl by year end, driven by higher demand as the global economy should improve sequentially towards the end of 2013. Agriculture prices are

Hedged Into USD. Euro Fixed Income Is illoxx Overall Index. US HG, HY, EhIBIG and EMS Corp are JPM Indices. EM FX Is ELMI+ in S. 2 EFTA00598497 Jan Loeys (1-2121834-5874 Global Asset Allocation The Morgan View 04 January 2013 given we are only in the first week of the year, the early QE exit trad