Epstein Secrets

Return to long-term trend ¢ The Eurozone crisis abates. Financial market conditions recover, mitigating the drag from fiscal austerity. ¢ Growth in Western Europe turns decisively positive by early 2013 and the US economy grows above trend. & Negative scenario (Probability: 15%*) Recession ¢ There are three ke

yment rate for October 6 Nov US presidential and congressional elections 8 Nov The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China 22-23 Nov European Council 2 UBS Global growth expected to be around 3% in 2012 and 2013 Real GDP growth in % Inflation in % 2011 2012F — 2013F 2011 2012F — 2013F Americas

012. We think that the risk that the Fed will take measures in addition to the extension of "Operation Twist" is still significant. e Large parts of Western Europe are in recession or stagnation. We expect the economies of the Eurozone and the UK to show mild improvement in 2H 2012. Still, economic activity is l

nal support for Spanish banks can be seen as the starting point for greater European support and oversight for banks, to be discussed at the upcoming European Council. ¢ Greece's debt remains unsustainable, but the risk of a euro exit over the next six months has diminished after the 17 June elections, which have

tivities on the part of Hezbollah" and calling on the European Council to take "all necessary steps to curtail them." B

travel agencies in Jordan and brokerage firms in Serbia. Massar invests in Harvest Export, which sells Palestinian produce to consumers in Russia and Western Europe -- as well as in Israel. Two years ago, Masri made headlines when he attempted to purchase a bankrupt Jewish housing development in East Jerusalem. H

tivities on the part of Hezbollah" and calling on the European Council to take "all necessary steps to curtail them." Bu

travel agencies in Jordan and brokerage firms in Serbia. Massar invests in Harvest Export, which sells Palestinian produce to consumers in Russia and Western Europe -- as well as in Israel. Two years ago, Masri made headlines when he attempted to purchase a bankrupt Jewish housing development in East Jerusalem. H