Epstein Secrets

a long time for interest rates to return to more normal levels. This cozy era came to a close in 2015, and probably ended for good with the first U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) interest-rate hike last December. Major equity markets began this new age with their worst start of the year since the 1930s, amidst growing

facturing, for example, is tangible enough, but the potential gain from more Fed action for now looks distant. The stakes are particularly high for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), amidst growing concerns that they are running out of options. Past performance is not indicative of future retur

conditions supportive of growth. While we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to gradually shift to a more neutral stance

rms ¢ Investment in education and training This demographic aspect of secular stagnation is undeniable. In fact, an October 2016 paper by a team at the Federal Reserve Board, “Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics,””° shows that the slow pace of economic growth since 1980 and the more pronounced decline i

e negligible returns but come with downside risk, e.g., if the incoming Trump administration’s fiscal policy is more stimulative than we expect or if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at a more rapid pace than we expect. As we prepared our one- and five-year annualized expected returns for this Outlook and fi

ions supports a gradual rise in Treasury yields. ¢ However, over a six-month horizon, the extension of Operation Twist (OT) until the end of 2012 by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will limit the upside potential in yields. As of late, the probability of even more stimulus in the form of quantitative easing from the Fed ha

quality. ¢ The economic recovery fails to gain momentum in the second half of the year. Credit demand fails to improve further as some of the recent European Central Bank (ECB) data indicates. The ECB cuts rates. ¢ Further quantitative easing by the Fed would be supportive for Bunds and speaks for lower yields. & Negat

ly - the September report exaggerated the pace of improvement. Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation stays slightly below or close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. UBS forecasts real GDP growth of 2.0% in 3Q 2012 (consensus: 1.8%) and 1.6% in 4Q 2012 (consensus: 1.9%). The Fed has added considerabl

tion of US Treasury and German Bund yields are important for EM fixed income spreads, especially for USD- and EUR-denominated bonds. Key date: Dec 6, European Central Bank meeting Capital flows The European debt crisis may lead to further periods of outflows and weaker prices, which could offer attractive entry levels