Epstein Secrets

rms ¢ Investment in education and training This demographic aspect of secular stagnation is undeniable. In fact, an October 2016 paper by a team at the Federal Reserve Board, “Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics,””° shows that the slow pace of economic growth since 1980 and the more pronounced decline i

te sides of the debate on declining productivity growth. Both camps have garnered new members; even Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer have joined the fray.” Most recently, in September 2016, the Brookings Institution hosted a conference with leading experts from both camps to debate

e negligible returns but come with downside risk, e.g., if the incoming Trump administration’s fiscal policy is more stimulative than we expect or if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at a more rapid pace than we expect. As we prepared our one- and five-year annualized expected returns for this Outlook and fi

cteristics: the tightening cycle started in 2015, the pace has been 25 basis points per year, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index— the Federal Reserve’s preferred benchmark for inflation—is at 1.6% year over year as of November 2016, and our colleagues in GIR estimate that the labor market still has a

ded to —$4.5tn, more than five times its pre-crisis level I As a result, current monetary policy is the furthest from normalised policy on record IIThe Fed has explained this divergence from normal policy in a number of ways — Other measures of labour market slack are elevated (e.g., high part-time em

d income market will have 200 400 600 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Note: projections based on a speech by the Fed's Stanley Fischer in February 2015 Source: Fischer (2015), FRBNY, Deutsche Bank Research Research EFTA01476279 Deutsche Bank [email protected] http://hou

ormer U.S. Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs E. Gerald Corrigan, Partner and Managing Director, Goldman, Sachs & Co.; former President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Alain Cotta, Professor, University of Paris Michael 3 Critelli, Chairman, Pitney Bowes, Inc., Stamford Lester Crystal, NBC/RCA Gerald

n Members Page 3 of 9 Inc.; George F Baker Professor of Economics, Harvard University; former Chairman, President's Council of Economic Advisors Stanley Fischer, First Deputy Managing Director International Monetary Fund George M. C. Fisher, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Eastman Kodak