Epstein Secrets

ment in 2H 2012. Still, economic activity is likely to remain very sluggish despite support from lower oil prices and less rigorous fiscal austerity. The Bank of England may support the UK economy by increasing its amount of bond purchases soon. The probability that the ECB will take further action to support the econ

012. We think that the risk that the Fed will take measures in addition to the extension of "Operation Twist" is still significant. e Large parts of Western Europe are in recession or stagnation. We expect the economies of the Eurozone and the UK to show mild improvement in 2H 2012. Still, economic activity is l

of nebulous market efficiencies. The 'Barber Boom' of the early 1970's ended with a spectacular crash and the 'secondary banking crisis' in which the Bank of England had to launch the 'lifeboat' to rescue thirty or so banks in the UK's very own dry run of the credit crunch. Despite this early warning, deregulatio

cialist paths; almost all of the rest followed a route of import substitution behind high tariff barriers. Following rapid post war growth, most of Western Europe and North America went through a period in the fifties and sixties with full employment and ongoing labour shortages. Meanwhile the few poor or poo

k of England supports equities. Key date: 8 Nov, Bank of England policy meeting 2 UBS Recommendations Tactical

Return to long-term trend ¢ The Eurozone crisis abates. Financial market conditions recover, mitigating the drag from fiscal austerity. ¢ Growth in Western Europe turns decisively positive by early 2013 and the US economy grows above trend. & Negative scenario (Probability: 15%*) Recession ¢ There are three ke

ding to market capitalization. Developments in commodity prices affect earnings estimates. Commodity prices Policy action Loose monetary policy by the Bank of England supports equities. Key date: 8 Nov, Bank of England policy meeting 2 UBS Recommendations Tactical (6 months) e The UK offers an attractive 4% di