Epstein Secrets

ation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PBOC: People’s Bank of China PCE: personal consumption expenditures PE: price

urce: Investment Strategy Group, Emerging Advisors Group, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. both China and the US, such as Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia, would be particularly vulnerable. While the net effect of these competing forces is positive in our base case, the risks are tilted to the downside

ectors Ambassador and Permanent Representative of the People's Republic of China Acting Chief Executive Officer Commissioner, Cli

nd (IMF) The Uncultured Project LightSquared Holcim Ltd Dogus Group Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) USA Switzerland United Arab Emirates Malaysia United Arab Emirates Nigeria USA India Canada Qatar Russian Federation Turkey Germany Germany South Africa USA USA USA Switzerland Switzerla

. We think that policy measures to support the economy should have more visible effect on activity in the second half of the year. ¢ To this effect, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has recently cut interest rates by 25bps — the first such move since late 2008. With investment demand still sluggish, we don't expect the mea

hard landing) hit trade and thus the economic prospects of emerging markets. In this case, we would expect a 25% decline in earnings. More defensive Malaysia would do better, whereas more cyclical Korea and Taiwan would underperform. We assume, however, that the market would also be expecting some recovery

ina and the IEA) Hourly compensation for production workers Share of US rate, 2005 vs. 2011 30% Share of US imports of intermediate goods from China, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, percent 25% • 2005 • 2011E 20% - 15% 10% 5% 0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 1 2% 0% Taiwan Mexico China Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

t, year on year 23% 10% 21% 8% 19% 17% - 6% CPI 15% 4% 13% Deposit rate 11% 2% 9% 0% 7% 5% + 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -2% 2005 2005 2006 Source: People's Bank of China 2007 2008 2009 Source: People's Bank of China, National Bureau of Statistics. 2010 2011 Forward-looking manufacturing surveys have declined and inter