Epstein Secrets

conditions supportive of growth. While we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to gradually shift to a more neutral stance

urce: Investment Strategy Group, Emerging Advisors Group, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. both China and the US, such as Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia, would be particularly vulnerable. While the net effect of these competing forces is positive in our base case, the risks are tilted to the downside

hard landing) hit trade and thus the economic prospects of emerging markets. In this case, we would expect a 25% decline in earnings. More defensive Malaysia would do better, whereas more cyclical Korea and Taiwan would underperform. We assume, however, that the market would also be expecting some recovery

quality. ¢ The economic recovery fails to gain momentum in the second half of the year. Credit demand fails to improve further as some of the recent European Central Bank (ECB) data indicates. The ECB cuts rates. ¢ Further quantitative easing by the Fed would be supportive for Bunds and speaks for lower yields. & Negat

should growth return. Notwithstanding, short opportunities will remain in several European markets due to the influence of renewables. Moreover, if the European Central Bank were to lower its Main Refinancing Operations rate, currently 75 bps, and provide other monetary policy support, we would expect not only increased d

and Thailand; the other is a victim of government intervention, as in Korea and China. The two worlds can coexist in the same country, for example in Malaysia where independent power producers enjoy solid power purchase agreements while utility Tenaga, which is a large employer and which faces the consumer

Chinese growth could each hit EM's economic prospects. In such a scenario, we would expect a 20% decline in earnings over six months. More defensive Malaysia would do better, whereas more cyclical South Korea and Russia would underperform. We assume, however, that the market would also be expecting some re

tion of US Treasury and German Bund yields are important for EM fixed income spreads, especially for USD- and EUR-denominated bonds. Key date: Dec 6, European Central Bank meeting Capital flows The European debt crisis may lead to further periods of outflows and weaker prices, which could offer attractive entry levels