Epstein Secrets

Settlements BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics BOE: Bank of England BOJ: Bank of Japan CAGR: compound annual growth

Institution has called the “fiscal fights of the Obama administration.” The first fiscal fight resulted in the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) downgrade of US Treasury debt in August 2011. The equity markets, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, dropped about 19% between April and October of 2011. Taken together, the

and the resulting consensus view that the UK was destined for recession. Although the 20% decline in the trade-weighted sterling and rapid easing by the Bank of England were no doubt pivotal in avoiding that fate, the immediate impact of the Brexit referendum has been far less destructive than feared. But as we begi

k of England supports equities. Key date: 8 Nov, Bank of England policy meeting 2 UBS Recommendations Tactical

ding to market capitalization. Developments in commodity prices affect earnings estimates. Commodity prices Policy action Loose monetary policy by the Bank of England supports equities. Key date: 8 Nov, Bank of England policy meeting 2 UBS Recommendations Tactical (6 months) e The UK offers an attractive 4% di

uld spike. Note: Scenarios refer to global economic scenarios (see slide 7) What we're watching Why it matters Core market yields The direction of US Treasury and German Bund yields are important for EM fixed income spreads, especially for USD- and EUR-denominated bonds. Key date: Dec 6, European Central Ba

Accountability & Reflection As the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney said in 2015, the “crisis and its af

% 10.7% NASDAQ 6496 6728 3.6% 25.0% TOPIX 1675 1766 5.4% 16.3% KOSPI 2394 2523 5.4% 24.5% Emerging Markets 1082 1119 3.5% 29.8% Fixed Income 2-Year US Treasury Note 1.49% 1.60% 12 41 10-Year US Treasury Note 2.33% 2.38% 5 -7 BarCap US Agg Corp Sprd 1.01% 0.95% -6 -28 BarCap US Corp HY Sprd 3.47% 3.38% -9 -71

ment in 2H 2012. Still, economic activity is likely to remain very sluggish despite support from lower oil prices and less rigorous fiscal austerity. The Bank of England may support the UK economy by increasing its amount of bond purchases soon. The probability that the ECB will take further action to support the econ

kets over the medium term. Valuations remain attractive, and the potential for spreads to trend lower should more than offset the gradual increase in US Treasury yields in the quarters ahead. We continue to prefer increasing exposure to corporate bonds while keeping existing investments in sovereign bonds. 36