Epstein Secrets

tations of higher taxes in the long run (e.g., Ricardian equivalence). Statutory debt limit and debt subject to limit Trillions of gross debt, USD 18 US Treasury: raiding the cookie jar Billions, USD 300 Gross debt/GDP 109% 16 250 Proposed increase 99% 200 14 - 12 - Debt limit 86% 78% 87% 150 69% 73% 100 10 68

t is the lesser of 2 problems Trillions, USD 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Present value of unfunded entitlement obligations 30 20 10 Existing debt 0 Source: US Department of the Treasury, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Items on the table in discussions to reduce the deficit Revenue raises Spending cuts Carried interest taxed at Discretiona

ratio is above 100%, and the country suffers from low growth (the lowest in the world from 2000-2010 other than Zimbabwe and Haiti, according to the Economist). Think about this: Italy has run a primary budget surplus (i.e. ex-interest payments) every year since 1992, but still hasn't been able to bring its

onitor three indicators to assess the state of the local economy: the rail freight volume, electricity consumption and bank loan volume. In 2010, The Economist introduced the Li Keqiang Index, which takes the weighted average of these three metrics’ annual growth rates to track Chinese economic growth. The

% 10.7% NASDAQ 6496 6728 3.6% 25.0% TOPIX 1675 1766 5.4% 16.3% KOSPI 2394 2523 5.4% 24.5% Emerging Markets 1082 1119 3.5% 29.8% Fixed Income 2-Year US Treasury Note 1.49% 1.60% 12 41 10-Year US Treasury Note 2.33% 2.38% 5 -7 BarCap US Agg Corp Sprd 1.01% 0.95% -6 -28 BarCap US Corp HY Sprd 3.47% 3.38% -9 -71

5-25 -23~—s -20 -19 25-26 Other assets -4 “1-11-10 11-1 -11 -11— 11 memo: Identified Saudi Arabian and Middle Eastern holdings in the US Saudi Arabia US Treasury (UST) holdings 51 46 8 69 68 £76 80 91 109 Long-term securities 50 45 82 68 67 74 78 88 107 Short-term securities 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 Saudi Arabia hold

rship, in our view. More questions than answers at this stage Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s initial suggestion in an interview with The Economist that a Saudi Aramco IPO could be considered has raised market expectations. Ensuing comments from Aramco’s management did not make clear whether a li